Important Inflation Figures To Be Released

Very important CPI prints today. With analysts divided as to whether Banxico will cut rates on Thursday, this data point will be eagerly anticipated by the market. As of writing, 15/20 surveyed analysts are calling for a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4%. Of these analysts, several reference a lack of conviction in the prediction and explain how this data point in particular, could be enough to sway the committee.

January mid-month CPI came out ahead of forecasts with the annual figure rising to 3.33% from a prior 3.08% reading. The mid-month core CPI figure also rose to 0.24% from a prior 0.08%.

Any additional upward pressure in the figures will likely heavily increase the probability of an extension of Banxico's pause in the easing cycle.

• 1200GMT/0700ET – January CPI m/m Expected 0.77% vs 0.38% prior
• 1200GMT/0700ET – January CPI y/y Expected 3.45% vs 3.15% prior
• 1200GMT/0700ET – January Core CPI m/m Expected 0.35% vs 0.55% prior