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Improved Global Risk Sentiment, Strong Wage Data Boosts HUF

HUF
EURHUF softened as much as 0.2% at the start of the session, as Virag noted in an interview that the Feb 27 rate decision is “fully open” (see more above). Global sentiment is likely the key driver behind today’s price action, with strength in the major US and European benchmark equity indices (following the strong Nvidia earnings reported overnight) and greenback weakness all providing a tailwind to risk-sensitive currencies. Indeed, HUF performance is broadly in-line with that of its EMEA peers.
  • In addition to this morning’s single currency strength, average wage data for December is likely contributing to HUF outperformance at the margins, with the data coming in well above expectations and the first domestic release which may support the case for another 75bp cut following the weaker-than-expected CPI and GDP prints earlier in the month which instead strengthen the case for more aggressive easing.
  • But despite today’s moderate losses, the short-term outlook for EURHUF remains bullish with key support at 384.69 – the 50-day EMA – still some way off. Upside focus falls on 390.49, the Jan 30 high.
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