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Improvement In Manufacturing Confidence More Than Offset By Services/Retail


Ahead of this morning's flash PMIs, the French business confidence indicator from INSEE weakened to 98 (vs 99 prior), with the rise in manufacturing sentiment more than offset by falls in the services and retail components.

  • Manufacturing sentiment index rose to 100 in February (vs a downwardly revised 98 prior). This was driven by an improvement in past production (from -8 in Jan to 0 in Feb).
  • Looking at the sub-components of the manufacturing print, overall order books improved in February but the reading remained in negative territory. Expected future employment declined to +3 (vs +6 in December and Jan) and the general production outlook worsened a touch to -8 (vs -7 in January).
  • The survey asks respondents for factors that are currently limiting production. In February, the proportion of companies reporting insufficient staff as a limiting factor rose sharply to +20 (vs +14 in Jan), but this measure remains below late ’23 levels.

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