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Incoming State Data Points To Large Downside Miss On National CPI

GERMANY

German states representing a majority weight of the national CPI have reported (NRW, Baden-W, Bavaria, Hesse, Brandenburg), with a rough estimate putting M/M % for those combined around 0.0-0.1%. Certainly not close to the 0.4% M/M consensus for the national CPI number later.

  • Some unusual factors appear to be at play in the downside misses -most notably transport costs being dragged down heavily by the "9-euro ticket," which allows travellers to use all means of public transport for 9 euro/month in June, July and August. The measure was announced by the federal government in February and is effective across all Germany.

Data so far:

  • North Rhine Westphalia CPI -0.1% M/M; +7.5% Y/Y
  • MNI: BAVARIA JUNE CPI +0.2% M/M, +7.9% Y/Y; MAY +8.1% Y/Y
  • MNI: BADEN WUERT JUN CPI +0.1% M/M, +7.1% Y/Y
  • BRANDENBURG JUNE CPI UNCHANGED M/M -bbg
  • HESSE JUNE CONSUMER PRICES UNCHANGED M/M -bbg
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