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Increased Donbas Pressure/Focus a Means of Pushing Ukraine Towards Minsk Agreements

RUSSIA
  • A rise in tensions in the Donbas with increased shelling and an evacuation of women and children and claims from Putin of genocide may be part of the latest effort to push Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements under the threat of a war in Europe.
  • Putin has dialled up the pressure in the past few days for the West to stop its expansion East, reject Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, remove all NATO weapons from Ukraine and push Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements to ensure a ceasefire in the Donbas.
  • This emerged in Russia’s response document that was released yesterday as the “solution to de-escalation” and seems to be more aggressively on the agenda RE Ukraine. Although the document specified that no invasion of Ukraine was planned, but military technical measures could be the result of further escalation.
  • The concern is that this pressure could lead to the determination of a ‘false flag’ operation or an actual invasion with the West still arguing that Russian troop numbers have increased to 160-200k.
  • Putin’s latest comments have distanced Russia from the Separatists’ conflict with Ukraine, but would likely step in if meaningful casualties were caused by Ukrainian troops.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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