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STIR: Incremental Hawkish Movement In Fed Pricing On Personal Consumption Data

STIR
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Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed pricing on the back of the stronger-than-expected personal consumption data for December & accompanying upward revisions.

  • Some light counter comes from low unrounded core PCE prints, that were a touch below most unrounded estimates that we had read. Unrounded PCE releases matched broader expectations, although super core measures still run above 3.0% in annualised terms.
  • 4bp of cuts priced through March, 12bp through May, 23.5bp through June. 28.5bp through July, 36.5bp through September, 41.5bp through October and 46.5bp through year-end, little changed to ~1bp less dovish than pre-release levels.
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Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed pricing on the back of the stronger-than-expected personal consumption data for December & accompanying upward revisions.

  • Some light counter comes from low unrounded core PCE prints, that were a touch below most unrounded estimates that we had read. Unrounded PCE releases matched broader expectations, although super core measures still run above 3.0% in annualised terms.
  • 4bp of cuts priced through March, 12bp through May, 23.5bp through June. 28.5bp through July, 36.5bp through September, 41.5bp through October and 46.5bp through year-end, little changed to ~1bp less dovish than pre-release levels.