MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

INDIA: August Inflation Beat Should Provide Room for RBI to Hold

INDIA
IndiaGlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

Despite expectations for further moderation, India’s inflation surprised to the upside in August. Yesterday’s CPI print saw inflation rise 3.65% following July’s release of 3.54% and survey expectations of 3.47%. The RBI’s own forecasts pointed to an expected rise, despite market forecasts. The largest contributor to the CPI basket (food prices) rose 5.66%, up from 5.42% in July.

  • Whilst some market observers have held concerns about the slowdown in GDP seen from April to June, this data print should provide sufficient comfort to the RBI voting members that they have the opportunity to remain on hold for now and watch how the data evolves for the remainder of 2024. The central bank meet next on October 10.
  • Indeed, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said Friday at a forum in Singapore that “Inflation has been brought within the target band of 2-6%, but our target is 4% […] And over the last several monetary policy meetings, we have been reiterating the importance to stay the course and not get carried away by some dips in inflation.”
  • Both the rupee and local equities have been largely unfazed by the data, with the nation’s two main equity benchmarks close to flat at typing, holding onto the bulk of this week’s gains. The 84.00 level continues to cap USD/INR topside.
212 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Despite expectations for further moderation, India’s inflation surprised to the upside in August. Yesterday’s CPI print saw inflation rise 3.65% following July’s release of 3.54% and survey expectations of 3.47%. The RBI’s own forecasts pointed to an expected rise, despite market forecasts. The largest contributor to the CPI basket (food prices) rose 5.66%, up from 5.42% in July.

  • Whilst some market observers have held concerns about the slowdown in GDP seen from April to June, this data print should provide sufficient comfort to the RBI voting members that they have the opportunity to remain on hold for now and watch how the data evolves for the remainder of 2024. The central bank meet next on October 10.
  • Indeed, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said Friday at a forum in Singapore that “Inflation has been brought within the target band of 2-6%, but our target is 4% […] And over the last several monetary policy meetings, we have been reiterating the importance to stay the course and not get carried away by some dips in inflation.”
  • Both the rupee and local equities have been largely unfazed by the data, with the nation’s two main equity benchmarks close to flat at typing, holding onto the bulk of this week’s gains. The 84.00 level continues to cap USD/INR topside.