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INDIA: CPI Preview. 

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  • Tomorrow see’s the release of October’s CPI in India.
  • Market surveys suggest that a meaningful pick up in inflation is possible with expectations for the month of a rise of +5.90% (following 5.49% in September).
  • The last month’s rain in the southern states has had a material impact on crops, causing damage and delaying harvest driving prices higher.
  • Onion prices have hit a 5-year high causing debate across the economy and even in congress.
  • Edible oil prices have surged also, due to Diwali.
  • The RBI has an upper boundary for CPI of 6% and if market surveys are correct, October’s CPI will challenge that.   
  • Recently RBI Governor Das has been particularly hawkish in his views, sticking to his bullish GDP growth forecasts whilst warning of October’s inflation spike.
  • RBI Is one of the few of it’s Asean peers that is not currently in the process of cutting rates, or seemingly contemplating.
  • Market rates currently factor in no movement in rates at the Central Bank’s last meeting of the year on December 6, with the next meeting not until February 2025.
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  • Tomorrow see’s the release of October’s CPI in India.
  • Market surveys suggest that a meaningful pick up in inflation is possible with expectations for the month of a rise of +5.90% (following 5.49% in September).
  • The last month’s rain in the southern states has had a material impact on crops, causing damage and delaying harvest driving prices higher.
  • Onion prices have hit a 5-year high causing debate across the economy and even in congress.
  • Edible oil prices have surged also, due to Diwali.
  • The RBI has an upper boundary for CPI of 6% and if market surveys are correct, October’s CPI will challenge that.   
  • Recently RBI Governor Das has been particularly hawkish in his views, sticking to his bullish GDP growth forecasts whilst warning of October’s inflation spike.
  • RBI Is one of the few of it’s Asean peers that is not currently in the process of cutting rates, or seemingly contemplating.
  • Market rates currently factor in no movement in rates at the Central Bank’s last meeting of the year on December 6, with the next meeting not until February 2025.