MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.20B BSL

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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INDIA: Headline CPI Expected to Show Temporary Spike in September

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CPI data for September is on the docket this afternoon (13:00BST/17:30IST), where the headline figure is expected to increase from +3.65% Y/Y to +5.10%. The spike is likely to be temporary but is not expected to stop the RBI from cutting rates in December after last week’s change of stance to ‘neutral’.

  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to increase to 5.2% Y/Y in September. They expect food inflation to sequentially increase by 0.4% M/M (implying 7.7% Y/Y) and core inflation to increase modestly by 10bps to 3.5% Y/Y. Going forward, GS expect some of this increase to reverse in the second half of October and bake in a sharper sequential contraction in November-December given increased arrivals of fresh harvests. They slightly raise their food and headline inflation forecast for CY24 by 10bps each to 6.7% Y/Y and 4.6% Y/Y, respectively.
  • ING note that India's CPI in September 2023 fell sharply, mainly driven by falling food prices. This year, September food prices are less weak, with seasonal vegetable prices rising. As a result, a 0.5% M/M increase in the CPI index will take the inflation rate up to 5.3% Y/Y, they say, noting that this will probably not be a lasting increase as the October and November 2023 CPI indices quickly reversed the September falls.
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CPI data for September is on the docket this afternoon (13:00BST/17:30IST), where the headline figure is expected to increase from +3.65% Y/Y to +5.10%. The spike is likely to be temporary but is not expected to stop the RBI from cutting rates in December after last week’s change of stance to ‘neutral’.

  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to increase to 5.2% Y/Y in September. They expect food inflation to sequentially increase by 0.4% M/M (implying 7.7% Y/Y) and core inflation to increase modestly by 10bps to 3.5% Y/Y. Going forward, GS expect some of this increase to reverse in the second half of October and bake in a sharper sequential contraction in November-December given increased arrivals of fresh harvests. They slightly raise their food and headline inflation forecast for CY24 by 10bps each to 6.7% Y/Y and 4.6% Y/Y, respectively.
  • ING note that India's CPI in September 2023 fell sharply, mainly driven by falling food prices. This year, September food prices are less weak, with seasonal vegetable prices rising. As a result, a 0.5% M/M increase in the CPI index will take the inflation rate up to 5.3% Y/Y, they say, noting that this will probably not be a lasting increase as the October and November 2023 CPI indices quickly reversed the September falls.