INDIA: Modi On Course For 3rd Term, But BJP Support Well Short Of Expectations

Partial results from the Indian general election show that PM Narendra Modi and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies are on course to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha that would give the PM a third term in office. However, so far the NDA is falling well short of pre-election expectations. Ahead of the vote, opinion polling showed the BJP and its allies were on course for a two-thirds 'special majority' that would have given the gov't powers to alter the Indian constitution. 

• At present partial results show Modi's Hindu nationalist BJP itself could fall short of a majority in what would be a notable blow to the PM's prestige even as he embarks on a third term in office. The Election Commission of India shows the BJP leading in 238 of the 543 seats in the lower house, well short of the 272 required for a majority, and a significant decline on the 303 seats won by the BJP in 2019. 
• Data from the Times of India shows the NDA leading in 288 seats compared to 235 for the Indian National Congress (INC)-led alliance known as I.N.D.I.A. 
• As we noted in our Election Preview, an NDA regular majority will likely prove most conducive to policy continuity without the potentially market-unnerving issue of constitutional reforms that a special majority could entail. 
• Partial results even show that the INC is leading in a seat in Gujarat, Modi's home state that has not returned a non-BJP MP since 2009. These sort of unexpected results, combined with a failure to break through in the southern tip of the country, look set to limit Modi's manoeuvrability as he will be reliant on NDA allies to govern.