Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wires reporting that parties within the right-wing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have officially confirmed their support for PM Narendra Modi to continue in office, with the swearing-in ceremony to take place on Saturday 8 June. Modi's BJP lost its outright majority in the lower chamber of parliament in the general election, meaning gaining the backing of NDA allies would be required to give Modi a third consecutive term in office. The TDP and JD(U) parties had indicated earlier in the day that they would back Modi, but the meeting NDA meeting in New Delhi appears to have confirmed another five years in power.
- Relying on NDA allies will notably hamper Modi's Hindu nationalist policy programme. As Bloomberg notes, "A weak Modi-led coalition government will likely make it difficult for him to push through tough economic reforms or further his Hindu nationalist agenda. Many of the BJP’s alliance partners don’t share the Hindu nationalist views that are core to the BJP agenda."
- The opposition Indian National Congress (INC)-led I.N.D.I.A is set to meet on the evening of 5 June to decide on its political trajectory. While dealing a blow to Modi's image of political invulnerability established in recent years, the opposition alliance remains ideologically disparate and is unlikely to be able to lure enought NDA parties to leave Modi to form an alternative gov't - at least in the short term.
Chart 1. Vote % for Main Alliances/Parties
Source: Bloomberg, Election Commission of India, Lokniti Programme for Comparative Democracy, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.