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INDIA: Today’s Data Release to Provide Guidance on Rates.

INDIA
IndiaGlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

 

  • India has two major data releases could provide guidance on the possibility of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s next meeting in October.
  • July’s release saw significant moderating of inflation from 5.08 in June to 3.54% in July.
  • Market expectations for August are for a further moderation to 3.47% on the back of declining food prices for the year-on-year comparison.
  • The risk to this scenario remains Core inflation which has edged up in recent prints.
  • Additionally, Industrial Production is set to be released where economists are predicting a rise from 4.2% in June to 4.6% for July.
  • June’s release was a significant miss, relative to expectations with a decline in manufacturing surprising markets.
  • The risk to the forecast uptick remains exports which have been moderating in June and July and given the small decline in July’s PMI, could see further softening in manufacturing. 


 

 

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  • India has two major data releases could provide guidance on the possibility of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s next meeting in October.
  • July’s release saw significant moderating of inflation from 5.08 in June to 3.54% in July.
  • Market expectations for August are for a further moderation to 3.47% on the back of declining food prices for the year-on-year comparison.
  • The risk to this scenario remains Core inflation which has edged up in recent prints.
  • Additionally, Industrial Production is set to be released where economists are predicting a rise from 4.2% in June to 4.6% for July.
  • June’s release was a significant miss, relative to expectations with a decline in manufacturing surprising markets.
  • The risk to the forecast uptick remains exports which have been moderating in June and July and given the small decline in July’s PMI, could see further softening in manufacturing.