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INDIA: India  update on ND Swaps Pricing  Vs. Pre-RBI February Meeting Levels

INDIA
IndiaEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market News
  • The RBI bought INR500bn of government securities yesterday as part of its planned open market operation Tuesday, in a bid to maintain liquidity.  (source: RBI)
  • For last night’s close, the swaps curve doesn’t have a full rate cut priced in for the next meeting on April 9, only 20bps but has a full rate cut priced in by the following meeting.
  • The government bond curve has 64bps of cuts priced in over the next 12 months (down from 66bps yesterday).
  • A 25 bps cut at the next meeting is given a 78% probability according to the swaps pricing (down from 80% yesterday).
  • Government bond yields have been incredibly resilient with the 10YR having a strong day yesterday following the OMO, falling 2bps in yield to 6.67% with the 1-year low at 6.65% in early February.
  • The RBI announced its upcoming purchase schedule noting “on a review of current and evolving liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank has decided to conduct OMO purchase auction of Government of India securities for an aggregate amount of ₹50,000 crore to be held on March 25, 2025 (Tuesday).” (source: RBI)

 

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  • The RBI bought INR500bn of government securities yesterday as part of its planned open market operation Tuesday, in a bid to maintain liquidity.  (source: RBI)
  • For last night’s close, the swaps curve doesn’t have a full rate cut priced in for the next meeting on April 9, only 20bps but has a full rate cut priced in by the following meeting.
  • The government bond curve has 64bps of cuts priced in over the next 12 months (down from 66bps yesterday).
  • A 25 bps cut at the next meeting is given a 78% probability according to the swaps pricing (down from 80% yesterday).
  • Government bond yields have been incredibly resilient with the 10YR having a strong day yesterday following the OMO, falling 2bps in yield to 6.67% with the 1-year low at 6.65% in early February.
  • The RBI announced its upcoming purchase schedule noting “on a review of current and evolving liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank has decided to conduct OMO purchase auction of Government of India securities for an aggregate amount of ₹50,000 crore to be held on March 25, 2025 (Tuesday).” (source: RBI)

 

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