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INDONESIA: Consumer Confidence Gradually Trending Lower

INDONESIA
EM BulletAPACEmerging Market NewsBulletIndonesiaGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Indonesian consumer confidence fell 2.4 points in October to 121.1, the lowest since December 2022. It has been gradually trending lower since April. Private consumption growth has been solid this year running at 4.9% y/y, slightly stronger than 2023. October is just one data point but maybe it is signalling the start of a slowdown in Q4. Bank Indonesia (BI) cut rates once this year in September but the outlook for further easing will depend on rupiah stability (USDIDR up 0.7% since October meeting).

  • Retail sales were still robust in the year to August rising 5.8% y/y up from 4.5% in July, but domestic car sales are weak contracting by 10.4% y/y 3-month average in September.
  • BI has said that it can support the economy through optimising macroprudential policies rather than rate cuts if it decides that it needs it, but it believes that private consumption will one of the drivers of Q4 2024 growth.
  • The government of new President Prabowo is planning an increase in fiscal spending, which may also support private consumption going forward. 

Indonesia private consumption y/y% vs consumer confidence

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Indonesian consumer confidence fell 2.4 points in October to 121.1, the lowest since December 2022. It has been gradually trending lower since April. Private consumption growth has been solid this year running at 4.9% y/y, slightly stronger than 2023. October is just one data point but maybe it is signalling the start of a slowdown in Q4. Bank Indonesia (BI) cut rates once this year in September but the outlook for further easing will depend on rupiah stability (USDIDR up 0.7% since October meeting).

  • Retail sales were still robust in the year to August rising 5.8% y/y up from 4.5% in July, but domestic car sales are weak contracting by 10.4% y/y 3-month average in September.
  • BI has said that it can support the economy through optimising macroprudential policies rather than rate cuts if it decides that it needs it, but it believes that private consumption will one of the drivers of Q4 2024 growth.
  • The government of new President Prabowo is planning an increase in fiscal spending, which may also support private consumption going forward. 

Indonesia private consumption y/y% vs consumer confidence

Keep reading...Show less