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Indonesia Faces Critical Period As Covid Cases Surge

IDR

Spot USD/IDR last changes hands -48 figs at IDR14,485, with local focus falling on the dire Covid-19 situation in Indonesia. The country added a record 27,913 new cases on Saturday, including ~10,000 in Jakarta, with the daily death toll reaching all-time highs on Sunday.

  • Indonesia ramped up efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19 after a record 555 positive cases died on a single day. The gov't tightened border controls and ordered that all production of industrial oxygen production is converted to pharmaceutical oxygen. The gov't has also intensified efforts to waive Covid-related IP rights at the WTO, which would allow countries like Indonesia to manufacture mRNA Covid-19 vaccines. Meanwhile, the emergency measures in Java & Bali have fully taken effect, but the authorities still expect daily cases to keep rising for the "critical period" of two weeks.
  • Danareksa Consumer Confidence Index is expected to hit the wires at some point this week, with the official counterpart coming up on Thursday.
  • Bears look for a dip through Jun 28 low of IDR14,415, which would clear the way to the 50-DMA, which kicks in at IDR14,368. Bulls need a move through Jul 2 high of IDR14,568, which would open up IDR14,633-14,635, which capped gains on Apr 13 - 15.
  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +7 figs at IDR14,532. A break above Jun 29 high of IDR14,666 would bring Apr 13 high of IDR14,736 into play. Bears would be pleased by a slide through Jun 18 low of IDR14,438.

Fig. 1: Indonesia Confirmed Daily Covid-19 Cases

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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