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Indonesian Markets Return, Spot USD/IDR Above 16100, Fresh Highs Back To Early 2020

IDR

Indonesian markets have returned from an extended break, with today the first trading session since Apr 5. Spot USD/IDR has surged, up over 2%, to be tracking around 16175. in recent dealings This is fresh highs in the pair back to Apr 2020. Note in March of that year the pair peaked at 16625.

  • Rupiah weakness largely reflects catch up to USD gains/higher yields while onshore markets were shut. Still, the 1 month NDF continues to gravitate higher, last 16220/25, off a further 0.65% in IDR terms (this pair broke above 16000 late last week).
  • Not surprisingly, headlines have crossed with BI stating it has intervened in the spot and domestic NDF markets. It also plans to offer higher SRBI yields to attract offshore inflows (BBG).
  • Focus will be on whether the BI shifts back to a more hawkish bias given this fresh round of IDR weakness and BI's focus on financial stability.
  • In the cross asset space, local equities are down, off 1.67%, while 5yr CDS is trending higher, back to +80.5bps.
  • The local data calendar has consumer confidence today, then external debt figures later in the week.
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