Indonesian Sov Curve Steeper, Retail Sales Rose 3.5% y/y

The Indonesian sov curve has twist-steepened today, pivoting at the 10yr as yields trade flat to 3bps higher. Retail sales estimate increased by 3.5% y/y, and 4.1% m/m according to BI.

• The INDON sov curve has twist-steepened on Wednesday with the 2Y yield 1.5bps higher at 5.24%, 5Y yield is 2bps higher at 5.32%, further out the 10Y yield is unchanged after moving 18bps higher on Tuesday, the 10y trades 5.47% off earlier highs of 5.51%, while the 5-year CDS is unchanged at 80.50bps and at the highest levels since mid Nov 2023.
• The INDON to UST spread has tighten with the 2yr now 25.5bps (-3.5bps), 5yr is 62.5bps (-2bps), while the 10yr is 81bps (unchanged)
• In cross-asset moves, the USD/IDR is 0.33% higher at 16,229, the JCI is 0.54% higher, Palm Oil is 1.89% lower, while US Tsys yields are mostly unchanged
• Indonesia's retail sales estimate increased by 3.5% year-on-year and by 4.1% month-on-month in March, supported by rising activity during Ramadan and ahead of the Eid-al-Fitr festivity. The growth was driven by higher sales of clothing, spare parts and accessories, and automotive fuel, with retailers anticipating continued solid sales through May, expecting price pressure to ease post-Eid.
• Looking ahead: Calendar remains empty until Trade Balance on Monday and BI rate decision on Wednesday