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Industrial Activity Slowly Recovering

GLOBAL

Data is showing that global industrial activity at the start of 2024 was slowly recovering but remains lacklustre. CPB reported global industrial production volumes for January slowed with the index falling 0.5% m/m to be up 1.2% y/y after +2.5% y/y, the slowest annual growth since October. It remains within the range it has been in since end 2022 though, and 3-month momentum in metal prices is positive and increasing. They tend to be a lead indicator of IP growth and thus signal that it should improve in coming months, but with March oil prices up almost 10% since end-2023, there remains a risk from energy and transport prices.

  • The global S&P Global manufacturing PMI is also signalling improving activity in the sector. It continues to point to moderate but positive Q1 growth. The February PMI improved slightly to 50.3 from January’s 50, the first time it has been at the breakeven level since August 2022.
  • Also, global merchandise trade growth continued to recover at the start of the year with exports rising 2.5% y/y and 3-month momentum positive.

Global growth

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg

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