NORWAY
The Norwegian industrial confidence indicator rose to 5.5 in Q4, up from 1.8 in Q3 and above the historical average of 2.9. Values above zero indicate that output is expected to grow in the forthcoming quarter. Statistics Norway notes that expectations are positive across all types of goods for Q1 2025, particularly amongst capital goods producers. The survey is unlikely to deter Norges Bank from holding rates next week, with the bank likely to continue signalling for a cut in March.
- Capital goods producers reported increased production in Q4, with intermediate goods production falling and consumer goods production remaining unchanged. The survey notes that the pace of growth amongst capital goods producers has slowed in the last couple of quarters, likely linked to the lower growth tailwind expected from the offshore sector in the coming years.
- Costs and prices rose across producer types in Q4 (but particularly amongst consumer goods), and respondents expects a similar development in the domestic and export markets in Q1 ’25.
- Investment plans remain unchanged overall, but “the proportion of manufacturing managers who believe that prices of investment goods and financing costs are limiting factors on investment is still relatively high”.
- Capacity utilisation edged higher to 78.8%, below the 80% historical average. A large number of respondents (62%) report that weak demand and strong competition have limited production, with 10% reporting a lack of qualified labour as a limiting factor.
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