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Industrial Production Deceptively Stagnant On Utilities Collapse

US DATA

Utilities were the culprit for the overall miss in January's US industrial production reading (flat growth vs +0.5% M/M expected, vs -1.0% prior revised from -0.7%).

  • Indeed, manufacturing (+ 1.0% M/M) and mining (+2.0%) rebounded from two negative months in Nov and Dec.
  • While manufacturing is still struggling overall (growing at approximately -6% 3M/3M annualized), utilities saw their biggest contraction ever at -9.9% M/M, dragging overall IP lower.
  • The release explains this with "a swing from unseasonably cool weather in December to unseasonably warm weather in January depressed the demand for heating."
  • And in contrast to manufacturing and mining, which saw capacity utilization move solidly higher, overall industrial utilization unexpectedly dipped - but that is because utilities utilization collapsed to an all-time low 68.6% vs 76.4% prior.
  • Overall, manufacturing is still an area of concern, but one-off factors mean the weak headline industrial production figure is not necessarily a harbinger of economic stagnation.

US Utilities Production SASource: Federal Reserve, BBG, MNI

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