Industrial Production Growth Boosted By Irish Data Volatility

EUROZONE JAN INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.7% M/M (FCST +0.3%); DEC -1.3% M/M

EUROZONE JAN INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.9% Y/Y (FCST +0.3%); DEC -2.0% Y/Y

• Eurozone industrial production expanded by +0.7% m/m and +0.9% y/y in the January data, outpacing consensus expectations of more modest +0.3% growth.
• On the month, only intermediate goods production grew (+1.5% m/m), however this largely represented a rebound from the December contraction. All other industrial groupings contracted, led by nondurable consumer goods (-2.1%), energy (-0.8%), durable consumer goods (-0.7%) and capital goods (-0.2%).
• Again in January, volatile Irish data (which is heavily exposed to moves in multinationals) will have skewed the headline print. Excluding the +9.8% m/m Irish expansion, growth was likely substantially more subdued in January, largely bolstered by Germany (+1.8% m/m), which saw energy-intensive production boosted. Easing supply bottlenecks and lower energy prices are supporting the industry.
• Looking forward, eurozone February PMI data recorded an increase in output PMI, implying that production stabilised after eight consecutive months of contraction. Yet as new orders continue to fall at a marked rate, weak demand may see manufacturing contract again.