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Industrial Production, Retail Sales Data Point to Deepening Recession

HUNGARY
  • Hungary’s retail sales dropped 12.3% y/y in May, below estimates of a 11% contraction (Prior: -12.7%). A detailed breakdown of the data shows adjusted retail sales fell in all types of shops, with the exception of drugstores and pharmacies where they rose by 5.4%.
  • Industrial production fell again in May, down 4.6% y/y though slightly above estimates of a larger 6.5% drop (Prior: -5.8%). However, industrial output rose 1.6% m/m from April. The data point to a continued recession for Hungary, with the economy likely to see little to no economic growth this year.
  • The weak data follows a 44.2 Manufacturing PMI print (Prior: 57.1) earlier in the week and has weighed on HUF this morning. EURHUF is up 0.6% at the time of typing, taking this week’s gains close to 3%. Tomorrow, CPI data is on the docket where the headline figure is expected to cross at 20.1% y/y. A continued trend of disinflation paired with the poor economic activity data will support the NBH’s projected easing cycle at their next meeting (Jul 25).
  • Hungary will continue cooperation with Russia in areas not falling under EU sanctions, as that is in the national interest, especially in energy security, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said after meeting Russia's health minister in Budapest on Wednesday as per MTI.
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