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Industrial Production Weakness Will Add To Recession Talk

US DATA

June saw weak Industrial Production: -0.2% vs +0.1% M/M expected, and sizeable combined downward revisions to April and May. See table from the release below.

  • Broad weakness continues across most major market groups, with manufacturing in contraction for the 2nd consecutive month.
  • Mining (due to oil and gas) picked up strongly; the more volatile utilities category contracted sharply.
  • This is one of the four key monthly indicators that is seen as a factor in NBER recession dating: two of the other three (real personal income ex-transfers and real retail sales) have/are likely to signal June contraction - the "outlier" is the key indicator of nonfarm payrolls, which continues to post solidly positive

Source: Federal Reserve

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