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Free AccessIndustrial Production Weakness Will Add To Recession Talk
June saw weak Industrial Production: -0.2% vs +0.1% M/M expected, and sizeable combined downward revisions to April and May. See table from the release below.
- Broad weakness continues across most major market groups, with manufacturing in contraction for the 2nd consecutive month.
- Mining (due to oil and gas) picked up strongly; the more volatile utilities category contracted sharply.
- This is one of the four key monthly indicators that is seen as a factor in NBER recession dating: two of the other three (real personal income ex-transfers and real retail sales) have/are likely to signal June contraction - the "outlier" is the key indicator of nonfarm payrolls, which continues to post solidly positive
Source: Federal Reserve
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.