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Free AccessINE Business Confidence Data Supports Upward Revisions In Q1 GDP Forecasts
INE’s quarterly Business Confidence index rose 1.5% Q/Q and 2.6% Y/Y to 136.0 points in Q2. The print was driven mostly by positive expectations for the upcoming quarter, though on balance respondents reported favourable developments in Q1 as well.
- The optimism is consistent with recent survey evidence (e.g expansionary PMIs) and is indicative of positive sequential GDP growth in Q1 ’24.
- Analysts recently revised up Q1 Spanish GDP forecasts to 0.35% Q/Q, from 0.3% in the prior consensus survey (the flash estimate of Q1 GDP is released on April 30).
- Judging from recent surveys and data, Spain represents one of the few economic bright spots in the Eurozone, with the larger economies (e.g. Germany and France) continuing to struggle.
- The balance of respondents' expectations for Q2 was positive 9.3pp (23.1% of respondents had favourable expectations while 13.8% had unfavourable expectations).
- Reviewing Q1 activity, the balance of opinion was also positive at 3.0pp, (20.1% if respondents had a favourable opinion of Q1 while 17.1% had an unfavourable opinion).
- All industry sub-components saw positive Q/Q growth in Business Confidence, most notably transport and accommodation services (4.1% Q/Q) and industry (2.3% Q/Q).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.