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INE Business Confidence Data Supports Upward Revisions In Q1 GDP Forecasts

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INE’s quarterly Business Confidence index rose 1.5% Q/Q and 2.6% Y/Y to 136.0 points in Q2. The print was driven mostly by positive expectations for the upcoming quarter, though on balance respondents reported favourable developments in Q1 as well.

  • The optimism is consistent with recent survey evidence (e.g expansionary PMIs) and is indicative of positive sequential GDP growth in Q1 ’24.
  • Analysts recently revised up Q1 Spanish GDP forecasts to 0.35% Q/Q, from 0.3% in the prior consensus survey (the flash estimate of Q1 GDP is released on April 30).
  • Judging from recent surveys and data, Spain represents one of the few economic bright spots in the Eurozone, with the larger economies (e.g. Germany and France) continuing to struggle.
  • The balance of respondents' expectations for Q2 was positive 9.3pp (23.1% of respondents had favourable expectations while 13.8% had unfavourable expectations).
  • Reviewing Q1 activity, the balance of opinion was also positive at 3.0pp, (20.1% if respondents had a favourable opinion of Q1 while 17.1% had an unfavourable opinion).
  • All industry sub-components saw positive Q/Q growth in Business Confidence, most notably transport and accommodation services (4.1% Q/Q) and industry (2.3% Q/Q).

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INE’s quarterly Business Confidence index rose 1.5% Q/Q and 2.6% Y/Y to 136.0 points in Q2. The print was driven mostly by positive expectations for the upcoming quarter, though on balance respondents reported favourable developments in Q1 as well.

  • The optimism is consistent with recent survey evidence (e.g expansionary PMIs) and is indicative of positive sequential GDP growth in Q1 ’24.
  • Analysts recently revised up Q1 Spanish GDP forecasts to 0.35% Q/Q, from 0.3% in the prior consensus survey (the flash estimate of Q1 GDP is released on April 30).
  • Judging from recent surveys and data, Spain represents one of the few economic bright spots in the Eurozone, with the larger economies (e.g. Germany and France) continuing to struggle.
  • The balance of respondents' expectations for Q2 was positive 9.3pp (23.1% of respondents had favourable expectations while 13.8% had unfavourable expectations).
  • Reviewing Q1 activity, the balance of opinion was also positive at 3.0pp, (20.1% if respondents had a favourable opinion of Q1 while 17.1% had an unfavourable opinion).
  • All industry sub-components saw positive Q/Q growth in Business Confidence, most notably transport and accommodation services (4.1% Q/Q) and industry (2.3% Q/Q).