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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- The current 2.5bp climb in 10Y Tsy yields masks a 14.5bp jump in real yields (green line, chart) with a subsequent 12bp decline in the breakeven to 2.21% (white line).
- That leaves inflation expectations ~15bps below pre-2021 taper levels and down almost 80bps from the first rate hike in March, whilst the decline has been even more pronounced in the 5Y to 2.25% for the lowest since Feb’21.
- It further supports FOMC commentary that inflation expectations remain anchored, yet comes off steep but less aggressive market pricing than the Fed median path, currently eyeing a terminal 4.46% in Mar’23 before cuts to 4.24% by Dec’23, contrary to the median dot of 4.6% for 2023.
Breakevens for 10Y (white) and 5Y (yellow), 10Y real yield (green) and DXY (purple)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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