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US DATA: Inflation Concerns See Consumers Eye Earlier Purchases

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for December saw sentiment firm a little more than expected at 74.0 (cons 73.3) after 71.8.
  • Components were mixed though, with a much stronger than expected increase in current conditions (77.7 vs cons 65.2 after 63.9) at the expense of expectations (71.6 vs cons 77.7 after 76.9).
  • From the press release: "A surge in buying conditions for durables led Current Economic Conditions to soar more than 20%. Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases"
  • "The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December"
  • Reflecting this, 1Y inflation expectations were stronger than expected at 2.9% (cons 2.7) after 2.6% in November was the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • The 5-10Y inflation expectations meanwhile dipped a tenth to 3.1% as expected for back into their more typical 2.9-3.1% range. The 3.2% in Nov was a joint high with Nov’23 at levels last seen in 2011. 
Current conditions white line, expectations yellow line. Source: Bloomberg

 

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  • The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for December saw sentiment firm a little more than expected at 74.0 (cons 73.3) after 71.8.
  • Components were mixed though, with a much stronger than expected increase in current conditions (77.7 vs cons 65.2 after 63.9) at the expense of expectations (71.6 vs cons 77.7 after 76.9).
  • From the press release: "A surge in buying conditions for durables led Current Economic Conditions to soar more than 20%. Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases"
  • "The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December"
  • Reflecting this, 1Y inflation expectations were stronger than expected at 2.9% (cons 2.7) after 2.6% in November was the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • The 5-10Y inflation expectations meanwhile dipped a tenth to 3.1% as expected for back into their more typical 2.9-3.1% range. The 3.2% in Nov was a joint high with Nov’23 at levels last seen in 2011. 
Current conditions white line, expectations yellow line. Source: Bloomberg