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Inflation Could Reach Double-Digit Levels in H1 2022

CZECHIA
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that inflation accelerated to 6.6% YoY in December (as expected), up from 6% the previous month, divergence significantly from the 3% CNB upper tolerance band.
  • CNB forecasts inflation to surge up to 9% in January and could reach double-digit levels for a few months in Q1 2022.
  • December inflation came in 1-ppt higher than CNB autumn forecast.
  • CNB member Marek Mora said in an interview yesterday with Seznam that interest rates will exceed 4%, but are close to their peak. He does not think the pace of tightening will continue from May.
  • This morning, retail sales came in higher than expected at 9.9% YoY (vs. 6.4% exp.), up from revised 0.7% the previous month. In addition, Czech current account deficit came in smaller than expected at -6bn CZK (vs. 9bn CZK).
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