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Inflation data due at 7:00BST

SWEDEN
  • The Bloomberg consensus is looking for CPIF 8.1%Y/Y headline with quite a lot of analysts looking for 8.2%Y/Y (the Riksbank was looking for more like 8.0%Y/Y) - and CPIF ex energy is forecast around 5.8%Y/Y (Riksbank 5.7%Y/Y). So the starting point for consensus for both CPIF and CPIF ex energy is that it will come in around 1 tenth above the Riksbank forecast.
  • Yesterday we received the Prospera inflation expectations data and the 5-year expectations rose to 2.46% (the survey was conduced 6-12 July so after the June hike / updated Riksbank forecasts). That is the highest number in the 12-year history of the survey. One of the things that had Executive Board members breathing a sigh of relief in the June meeting was the fact that those long-term inflation expectations had ticked down a bit recently.
  • This all sets the scene for a higher inflation print today possibly pointing towards either a larger than 50bp hike at the next Riksbank meeting in September, or potentially even increasing the probability of an intermeeting hike (which would most likely take place in August if at all following next month's inflation print).
  • With this in mind, we think there could be a decent appreciation of SEK if we were to see prints such as CPIF at 8.5%Y/Y today (4 tenth upside surprise) or CPIF ex energy at 6.1%Y/Y (3 tenth upside surprise).
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