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Inflation data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • The median expectation from the previews we have read sees services CPI down slightly from 5.68%Y/Y to 5.6%Y/Y in June, with the mean expectation at 5.61%Y/Y. As a base case 11/15 analysts expect the print to round to either 5.5%Y/Y or 5.6%Y/Y while JP Morgan is alone looking for a softer 5.4%Y/Y print (albeit noting upside risks). 3/15 analyst previews that we have read look for services CPI to either remain at 5.7%Y/Y (to 1dp) or increase to 5.8%Y/Y.
  • There are risks from the Taylor Swift concerts. If these lead to an upside surprise, the sustainability of the initial market reaction will depend upon how much of the initial move is driven by concert and accomodation prices.
  • Headline inflation is expected at 1.9%Y/Y with upside risks (from 1.99% in May).
  • There are some question marks over NEIG (core goods) – most analysts look for this to fall further. Food prices are expected to continue to disinflate, despite last month’s downside surprise. Energy prices will again be almost entirely driven by fuel prices which were lower than in May.

For our full preview (and preview of tomorrow's labour market data) click here.

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