MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, April 22

MNI BRIEF: China To Quicken Resolving Local Debt Risks

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ECB's Wunsch Sees At Least Two Cuts By Dec

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1043 Mon; -4.74% Y/Y

NBH Data Watch

INDON Sov Curve Flatter, Trade Surplus Soars, BI Decision Wednesday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Inflation data due at 7:00BST / 8:00CET

UK DATA
  • Today's May inflation data takes on added significance in our view (alongside the June inflation print and next month's labour market report) as the MPC left the door open last week to a larger-than-25bp hike in August, depending on the data.
  • As of yesterday, markets were pricing around 56bp of hikes for the August meeting, down from a high of around 61bp.
  • MNI think that the decision is really between 25bp and 50bp (with 75bp extremely unlikely at this juncture), and ahead of today's data assign around a 60% probability to a 50bp hike.
  • Headline CPI is forecast projected to tick up a further 0.1pp to 9.1% in May, although economists are generally split between looking for a print in the range 9.0-9.2%Y/Y.
  • Core CPI is expected to see a modest 0.2ppt fall to a still very hot 6.0%Y/Y, with a larger range of estimates generally in the 5.9-6.3%Y/Y range.
  • Given how much the market is already pricing in, we are likely to see a bigger market move in reaction to a softer print than a higher print. We would also expect that we may see an initial reaction in sterling FX, and then a potentially bigger reaction at 7:30BST / 8:30CET when STIR markets open.
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