MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Inflation data due at 7:00BST / 8:00CET

UK DATA
  • Today's May inflation data takes on added significance in our view (alongside the June inflation print and next month's labour market report) as the MPC left the door open last week to a larger-than-25bp hike in August, depending on the data.
  • As of yesterday, markets were pricing around 56bp of hikes for the August meeting, down from a high of around 61bp.
  • MNI think that the decision is really between 25bp and 50bp (with 75bp extremely unlikely at this juncture), and ahead of today's data assign around a 60% probability to a 50bp hike.
  • Headline CPI is forecast projected to tick up a further 0.1pp to 9.1% in May, although economists are generally split between looking for a print in the range 9.0-9.2%Y/Y.
  • Core CPI is expected to see a modest 0.2ppt fall to a still very hot 6.0%Y/Y, with a larger range of estimates generally in the 5.9-6.3%Y/Y range.
  • Given how much the market is already pricing in, we are likely to see a bigger market move in reaction to a softer print than a higher print. We would also expect that we may see an initial reaction in sterling FX, and then a potentially bigger reaction at 7:30BST / 8:30CET when STIR markets open.
DataHomepageData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.