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Inflation data due at 7:00GMT (1/2)

UK DATA
MNI (London)
  • After yesterday's labour market data was in line to slightly better than expectations, SONIA futures fell yesterday, at one point intraday seeing the probability of a February 25bp hike rise above 92% and four hikes comfortably priced in by November. We have moved away a little from this pricing, although we still price in an 84% probability of a February hike and almost price in four hikes by November.
  • With this in mind there are two way risks to markets from today's inflation print. A higher print than expected would likely see a return to yesterday's near-term pricing as well as put pressure on the Reds/Greens and possibly be backed up by a small sterling appreciation. A lower print may give the MPC a little more breathing space than had been expected and hence see less hikes in the medium-term.
  • UK CPI is expected to have increased 0.1ppt to 5.2%Y/Y in December, according to the Bloomberg consensus, from the 5.1%Y/Y rate of November which was the highest level since September 2011.
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