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Inflation Data Scheduled, Itaú Expecting Core Deceleration

BRAZIL
  • Mid-October IPCA inflation will be released at 1300BST/0800ET, Annual headline inflation is expected to dip to 5.04% from 5.19% in the full September read. Analysts point to slowing pressures from transportation costs and lower food prices, which tend to offset the expected seasonal acceleration in apparel prices. The data will likely reinforce the expectations for another 50bp rate cut at the monetary policy meeting next week.
  • Itaú are expecting a slightly weaker print than the surveyed median estimate. They expect inflation to decelerate to 0.14% (from 0.35% in September), with gasoline and electrical energy posting some deflation. Regarding core inflation, Itaú expect additional deceleration at the margin with underlying industrial growth around 1.5% from 1.9% in September (3mma saar) and underlying services growth roughly stable at 4.2% (3mma saar).
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