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Inflation Developments Since Feb 1 FOMC [1/2]

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Inflation Developments Since Feb 1 FOMC [2/2]

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[Follows part 1: https://marketnews.com/inflation-developments-since-feb-1-fomc-1-2]
  • More recently and coming within the FOMC’s media blackout, but also after the start of the regional banking crisis which had already sent Fed rate expectations tumbling, February core CPI was mildly stronger than expected at 0.45% M/M (cons 0.4%).
  • It left a particularly steady three months at 0.40, 0.41 and 0.45% M/M. There were plenty of nuances within the report though. The beat came despite a surprisingly large drop in used car prices and the closely watched core non-housing services series accelerated notably to the fastest pace since September, but the latter was driven by a bounce in airfares which wasn’t replicated in subsequent PPI data, the PCE input.
  • The net result is that core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 0.6% to 0.4% M/M or possibly a little softer in February (released after the FOMC on Mar 31), but this is still at least double the pace consistent with 2% annual inflation and a clear acceleration from the 0.30% M/M averaged in Q4.

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[Follows part 1: https://marketnews.com/inflation-developments-since-feb-1-fomc-1-2]
  • More recently and coming within the FOMC’s media blackout, but also after the start of the regional banking crisis which had already sent Fed rate expectations tumbling, February core CPI was mildly stronger than expected at 0.45% M/M (cons 0.4%).
  • It left a particularly steady three months at 0.40, 0.41 and 0.45% M/M. There were plenty of nuances within the report though. The beat came despite a surprisingly large drop in used car prices and the closely watched core non-housing services series accelerated notably to the fastest pace since September, but the latter was driven by a bounce in airfares which wasn’t replicated in subsequent PPI data, the PCE input.
  • The net result is that core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 0.6% to 0.4% M/M or possibly a little softer in February (released after the FOMC on Mar 31), but this is still at least double the pace consistent with 2% annual inflation and a clear acceleration from the 0.30% M/M averaged in Q4.