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Inflation Edges Down in April, Evidence For Cooling Core CPI

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY APR FLASH CPI +0.4% M/M; +7.2% Y/Y (= MNI EST); MAR +7.4% Y/Y

GERMANY APR FLASH HICP +0.6% M/M (FCST +0.8%) +7.6% Y/Y (FCST +7.8%); MAR +7.8% Y/Y

  • German inflation cooled further in the April flash data, easing by 0.2pp to +7.2% y/y as estimated by MNI based on state data prior to release. This was 0.1pp lower than the Bloomberg consensus.
  • Harmonised CPI rose +0.6% m/m and +7.6% y/y, both 0.2pp softer than consensus expectations, which had been looking for HICP to hold pace at the March level of +7.8% y/y.
  • Energy inflation accelerated in Germany in April, up 3.3pp at +6.8% y/y. This mirrors similar moves in French and Spanish April inflation data due to base-effects.
  • The flash data points towards a small deceleration in core CPI for Germany, after having risen to a fresh euro-era high of +5.8% y/y in March. Goods CPI slowed by 0.5 to +9.3% y/y and services by 0.1pp to +4.7% y/y in the flash press release.
  • Core CPI data excluding both energy and food is only available for six states which account for 50% of the headline index. These all saw core CPI easing by 0.1 to 0.3pp on the headline Y/Y prints (averaging close to a 0.15pp reduction at present), with core CPI m/m remaining expansive albeit softer at +0.5 to +0.6% m/m.



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