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Inflation Expectations Consolidate Recent Bounce

US
  • The 5Y breakeven sits little changed on the day having reversed an earlier spike higher, with the dip partly from WTI sliding (i.e. the decline in nominal yields is solely from real yields easing 6.5bps).
  • The net result is the 5Y breakeven consolidating the almost 20bp rise since late last week to 3.10%, although it remains well below cycle cycles.
  • Separate 5Y5Y inflation swaps at 2.67% have seen a larger increase compared to the decline from past highs but remain close to the average of the past few months.

Inflation 5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow), 5Y breakeven (white) and differential (green)Source: Bloomberg

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