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Inflation Expectations Moderate Across Parties


Swedish near term inflation expectations moderated in Prospera's "big" March survey (which contains data on social partners as well as the usual money market participants) relative to December, with 1-year CPIF expectations at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.8% prior) and 2-year expectations at 2.1% (vs 2.2% prior).

  • The risk of a de-anchoring in inflation expectations continues to be low, judging by Prospera data over the past few months.
  • 5-year ahead CPIF expectations were steady at 2.1% Y/Y.
  • Money-market player CPIF expectations were broadly steady relative to the February survey (+/- 0.1pp across 1/2/ and 5-year horizons).
  • All social partners saw 1-year CPIF expectations revised lower vs December. At a 2-year horizon, employees' organisations expectations rose a touch to 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior).
  • 1-year ahead wage expectations were revised a touch lower to 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.6% in December), while 2/5-year ahead expectations were steady at 3.1% Y/Y and 2.8% Y/Y respectively.
  • The full survey can be found here:

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