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Free AccessInflation Expectations Only Just Off Highs, Daly Not Concerned
- Longer-term inflation expectations have dipped from yesterday’s highs but remain elevated with the 5y5y inflation swap at 2.79% and the 5y5y breakeven at 2.54%.
- Whilst these still show a clear break higher from recent levels, SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) doesn’t appear too concerned, putting weight on mostly stable longer-term measures.
- She focused on consumer measures 3-5Y out (e.g. U.Mich which has stabilised) and also takes comfort from market-based measures showing a fall in expectations in coming years, “moving back to levels more consistent with the Fed’s average 2% goal”, although presumably these 5y5y measures can’t increase much further without threatening this.
U.Mich 5-10Y consumer inflation expectations (white), 5Y breakeven (purple), 5y5y breakeven (green) and 5y5y inflation swap (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.