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Inflation Expectations Only Just Off Highs, Daly Not Concerned

US
  • Longer-term inflation expectations have dipped from yesterday’s highs but remain elevated with the 5y5y inflation swap at 2.79% and the 5y5y breakeven at 2.54%.
  • Whilst these still show a clear break higher from recent levels, SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) doesn’t appear too concerned, putting weight on mostly stable longer-term measures.
  • She focused on consumer measures 3-5Y out (e.g. U.Mich which has stabilised) and also takes comfort from market-based measures showing a fall in expectations in coming years, “moving back to levels more consistent with the Fed’s average 2% goal”, although presumably these 5y5y measures can’t increase much further without threatening this.

U.Mich 5-10Y consumer inflation expectations (white), 5Y breakeven (purple), 5y5y breakeven (green) and 5y5y inflation swap (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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