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Inflation Expectations Signal Confidence RBA Reducing Inflation

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Melbourne Institute’s measure of consumer inflation expectations moderated to 4.6% in September from 4.9%, which was in line with April but the lowest since January 2022. This is going to be good news to the RBA as the series has been trending lower since June last year. There were a number of conflicting influences this month with petrol prices higher since the last survey but down in recent weeks and July CPI printing lower than expected. The Westpac consumer confidence survey showed that inflation remains the main concern for households but inflation expectations signal that they seem to have confidence that the RBA is bringing it under control in line with its current on hold stance.

Australia CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABSAu

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