Inflation Falls To +3.9% Y/Y Amid Benign Food Price Growth, Base Effect In Energy Prices

Poland's CPI came in lower than expected, printing at +3.9% Y/Y, while consensus was looking for +4.1% and the forecast provided by NBP Governor Glapinski was "+4.0% or just above that." The sequential reading fell marginally short of expectations, with prices up 0.4% M/M versus +0.5% expected by economists.

• ING comment that food prices (just +0.9% M/M) and base effects in energy prices weighed on overall inflation. They see core inflation at +6.1% Y/Y and +0.1% M/M. March will see headline at +2.5% Y/Y, in their view, but around 4-5pp is "hidden" in frozen energy prices and suspended VAT on food.
• mBank write that price dynamics for the main components were close to their expectations. They estimate that core CPI fell to +6.2% Y/Y in January.
• Pekao stress that the +0.4% M/M increase in prices is "small for a January," with base effects weighing on the Y/Y reading. They estimate core inflation to be around +6.4% Y/Y.
  
• PKO point to the impact of energy prices (high comparative base from a year ago, stability this year), while noting that disinflationary trends are broad-based and the seasonal repricing effect was probably smaller than in 2023. They see core inflation at +6.2% Y/Y.
  
• The Polish Economic Institute note that the momentum is significantly lower than in the last 3-4 years, while core inflation is likely around +6.2% Y/Y. They write that smaller food price inflation was key in containing overall inflation.