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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRIA
The Austrian National Bank has downwardly revised its headline CPI inflation estimates for the country for 2024 by 0.4pp to 3.6% and 2025 by 0.3pp to 2.7%. In 2023, Austrian inflation stood at 7.7% (all of these are annual averages).
- The bank sees changes in their assumptions on energy prices as the main driver behind the revision, noting also that "the resolution of supply bottlenecks and the below-average economic development will contribute to a rapid decline in the inflation rate in the industrial goods sector".
- Services inflation, driven by strong tourism demand (potentially referring to the comparatively large winter sport economy) and increasing wage pressures are set to remain elevated, however.
- The forecasts are still above the Bloomberg consensus, which currently projects Austrian headline CPI inflation at 3.2% and 2.4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively (the Q4 2024 consensus is 2.5% Y/Y, hence a continued downward drift in CPI over the course of this year). Since the last survey in November 2023, the consensus was downwardly revised for 2024 by 0.1pp, and the 2025 consensus stayed flat since then.
- Austrian National Bank governor Holzmann recently commented regarding broader Eurozone inflation dynamics in an interview to MNI: “we have reason for some optimism. At the same time, we have been misled by projections before, so let's stay data-dependent and open to acting when we need to act, but also not acting prematurely.”
- While the ongoing downward revisions can be seen as a positive development on the rate cut front, the estimated number for 2025 average CPI still lies above 2%.
MNI, Bloomberg, Austrian National Bank
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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