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Inflation Gauge Signals Further Step Up In Inflation In January

AUSTRALIA DATA

The January Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose strongly to 6.4% y/y from 5.9%, a new series high. The trimmed mean was also higher at 5.3% y/y from 4.2%. Both series rose 0.9% m/m, which is a concern. After the new monthly CPI rose to 8.4% y/y in December, this increase in the MI inflation gauge for January is not good news and may signal that inflation is yet to peak and could be proving sticky. In addition, MI inflation expectations are off their peak but seem stuck above 5%. Thus, the inflation situation continues to put pressure on the RBA to tighten further beyond the February meeting. A 25bp hike is widely expected for tomorrow.

Australia CPI vs MI inflation gauge y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS

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