Inflation (Jan 2019) Preview - 0930GMT......>

UK DATA: Inflation (Jan 2019) Preview - 0930GMT 19/2/20

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- CPI: BBG: -0.4% m/m, 1.6% y/y; Prev (Dec) 0.0% m/m, 1.3%y/y 

- Core CPI: BBG: 1.5% y/y; Prev (Dec) 1.4% y/y 

- CPIH: BBG: 1.7% y/y; Pre(Dec) 1.4% y/y 

- RPI: BBG: -0.6% m/m, 2.5% y/y; Prev (Dec) 0.3% m/m, 2.2%y/y 

- Y/Y CPI is forecast to rise to 1.6% in Jan after Dec's drop to a 37-months low

of 1.3%. 

- Jan's expected uptick is mainly due to the annual comparison of the Ofgem

price caps.

- Core CPI is anticipated to edge up slightly by 0.1pp to 1.5% in Jan, while the

CPIH is seen rising to 1.7% 

- The UK's services PMI ticked up in Jan with the survey noting the fastest rise

in average prices charged since Jun 2018. 

- However, the BRC shop price index showed the eighth consecutive decline of y/y

shop prices in Jan, although at a slightly slower pace.