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Inflation Release Bolsters March Hike, But Will More Be Needed

NORWAY
  • CPI coming in higher than expected will bolster the already-consensus view for a March 25bps hike (infitting with January Norges communications), but may raise questions about whether more tightening is required beyond Q1.
  • Q1 inflation was projected at 5.86% in December, 5.76% in Q2.
  • NOK has strengthened marginally, and FRA pricing is relatively unscathed so far, but the print could be a cause for concern in the next wave of wage bargaining, set to kick off over spring.
  • The TBU (Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements) are set to outline their expectations for 2023 inflation in February, which will form a basis of negotiations across the coming months. While NB still see no wage-price spiral, today's data remains uncomfortable.
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