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Inflationary Pressures Expected To Remain Firm in August

POLAND
  • At 11am (London time), Constitutional Tribunal hearing on whether Poland's Constitution takes precedence over EU laws (BBG). The constitutional court's ruling was initially expected in April, but then has been postponed.
  • The next two 'key' events to watch for Poland will August CPI inflation today (9am London time) and NBP meeting on September 8.
  • According to sell-side estimates, CPI inflation is expected to rise to 5.1% YoY in August, up from 5% in July, keeping diverging from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band.
  • The NBP is expected to keep its benchmark rate on hold (at 0.1%) despite the rising inflationary pressures, diverging from other CEE central banks (i.e. Hungary, Czech Republic), which have already started a tightening cycle.
  • As a result, PLN has been constantly testing new lows against HUF and CZK as traders keep chasing the monetary policy divergence.
  • Even though the NBP board has been gradually pivoting towards gradual tightening, the majority (including Governor Glapinski) still aims to keep interest rates low while the recovery is taking place as the uncertainty remains elevated.
  • November meeting will be the key event for the policy normalization outlook.
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