ING 1Q24: Small Profit Beat, Little To Drive Incremental Tightening

ING (INTNED: Baa1/A-/A+) results look good with small beats on revenues and costs. Credit stats appear positive so this is a solid lateral for ABN (results on 15-May). Spreads have marginally outperformed YTD and the confirmation of that buyback likely means few reasons to see another incremental tightening, we feel.

• Key credit stats: CET1 is 17bp ahead of expectations (at 14.8%) and drops to 14.1% with the EUR2.5bn equity buyback announced (which was expected). Loan losses were inline (at 16bp). Non-performers are flat overall (at 1.5% of loans, as expected) with an uptick in wholesale offset by retail. Solid performance, we feel.
• Overall: revenues are 2% ahead of consensus with NII in line but with narrative around improved liability margins and slightly upgraded guidance but consensus is mostly already there. Costs were slightly (2.5%) better than expected, pushing net profit 9% above consensus.
• Outlook: CMD is scheduled for 17-Jun, otherwise few changes other than that slightly massaging of the NII message towards top end of previous guidance range (consensus already there).

Conf call at 0800 at: https://online.ing.com/1q-2024-quarterly-results-analyst-call/join/aqg0ikbw