ING, BNP, Deutsche Below-Consensus Payrolls Views

Some below-consensus takes:

• ING: +550-600k: "The data miss should provide enough reasons to the market to a) believe the Fed's hawkishness has reached a peak for now, and b) settle for a "quiet"/low-volatility summer."
• Morgan Stanley: +620k
• BNP: +625k: "550k on the private side and 75k in the public sector, with supply constraints continuing to limit the run-rate of hiring... more downside risk than up"
• Deutsche: +700k: "headline nonfarm payrolls (+700k forecast vs. +559 previously) to outperform private sector hiring (+550k vs. +492k) due to less seasonal layoffs within the state and local education sector... although the very low aggregate vacancy yield would seem to signal a labor market that is tighter than suggested by the unemployment rate, the disconnect between these indicators is not particularly elevated from a historical perspective and is similar to that observed around the GFC. As such, we would not infer conclusively from the low vacancy yield that labor market slack is low."
• Scotiabank: +700k