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ING: CPI Report Means Faster Tapering, Earlier Rate Hikes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

ING sees an accelerated taper concluding in Q1 and rate hikes being brought forward with a minimum of two hikes in 2H2022 on the back of today's strong CPI report for October.

  • They note "clear inflation pressures in most categories" with "only 2 components recorded M/M readings below 0.4% – 0% for apparel and 0.2% for education".
  • ING can't rule out inflation touching +7% Y/Y in the next couple months for a myriad of reasons including all-time low retail inventories and recent energy and second hand car price movements.
  • Further out, ING "now forecast inflation staying above 3% right through 2022, well above the 2% target", with significant upside still to feed through from house prices along with strong pipeline price pressures evidenced in yesterday's PPI release.
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