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ING: Decision Represents Hawk / Dove Compromise

ECB

ING on the ECB decision: "This decision shows that the hawks must have got cold feet, fearing that the promised higher-than-25bp rate hike in September would be washed away by the looming recession. The agreement on a TPI had to be paid for by the doves with a stronger rate hike."

  • "Today’s decision shows that the ECB is more concerned about [inflation fighting] credibility than about being predictable. This matters more than forward guidance. Today’s decision conforms with our previous view that the ECB will not be able to deliver as many rate hikes over the next 12 months as markets had priced in after the June meeting."
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ING on the ECB decision: "This decision shows that the hawks must have got cold feet, fearing that the promised higher-than-25bp rate hike in September would be washed away by the looming recession. The agreement on a TPI had to be paid for by the doves with a stronger rate hike."

  • "Today’s decision shows that the ECB is more concerned about [inflation fighting] credibility than about being predictable. This matters more than forward guidance. Today’s decision conforms with our previous view that the ECB will not be able to deliver as many rate hikes over the next 12 months as markets had priced in after the June meeting."