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ING Expect 100bp Rate Cut, FX Stability Poses Downside Risk

HUNGARY
  • ING say the overall short-term inflation picture looks appealing, and expect headline inflation to remain within the tolerance band in both March and April. Meanwhile, international factors still remain a mixed bag, they say, while geopolitical tensions are little changed.
  • ING believe that the majority of the Monetary Council are likely to assess the situation of the HUF on a relative basis and conclude that there is somewhat less pressure on the currency than at the January rate-setting meeting.
  • Against this backdrop, ING see the NBH cutting the base rate by 100bps. They add that FX stability is the major factor that poses a downside risk to their call. In ING’s view, this does not mean that 100bp cuts will be automatic going forward – the central bank will definitely remain in its data-dependent mode and it will put emphasis on this temporary nature of acceleration in the easing cycle in its communication.
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