MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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ING Expect 50bp Cut at October NBH Meeting

HUNGARY
  • Taking into account the latest developments (lowered inflation profile, encouraging current account data and Polish election results), ING are updating their call and now see the NBH cutting the base rate by 50bp at the October meeting.
  • Regarding the remainder of the year, they see the central bank sticking to this size, reflecting its cautiousness and graduality. As a result, they expect the base rate to end the year at 11.50%, 50bp lower than their previous call.
  • They note that should Hungary get the green light in the coming days and have access to a large part of the Cohesion Fund, this could boost market sentiment towards Hungary. As a result, the NBH may have the opportunity to lower the key interest rate at a faster pace.
  • ING see the HUF stronger - mainly due to the smaller size of the NBH rate cut compared to market expectations. They thus retain a slightly positive bias in the short term with risks in mind. Longer term, however, they expect the HUF to be stronger with 375 EUR/HUF at year-end.
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